|
| |
| SUMMARY
OFFICIAL FORECASTS & MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS |
| Source: CBRT, SIS, UT |
Latest |
%D on same period year ago |
|
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
6.05* - - - - -6.4* - 64.3 5 |
2006T |
| Real GNP (% change) |
6.3 (2006Q1) |
- |
7.12 |
8,29 |
3.86 |
-6.08 |
6.34 |
-9.43 |
7.8 |
5.9 |
9.9 |
7.6 |
- |
| Real GDP (% change) |
6.4 (2006Q1) |
- |
7,01 |
7,53 |
3.09 |
-4.71 |
7.36 |
-7.39 |
7.8 |
5.8 |
8.9 |
7.4 |
- |
| GNP (US$ billion) |
360.9 (2005) |
- |
183.6 |
192.4 |
206.6 |
185.2 |
201.2 |
148.2 |
182.6 |
238.9 |
301.8 |
360.9 |
- |
| GDP (US$ billion) |
361.5 (2005) |
- |
181.1 |
188.7 |
201.6 |
183.2 |
199.6 |
149.8 |
184.3 |
241.0 |
302.9 |
361.5 |
- |
| GNP per Capita (US$) |
5,008 (2005) |
- |
2,928 |
3,079 |
3,255 |
2,879 |
2,986 |
2,123 |
2,584 |
3,383 |
4,172 |
5,008 |
- |
| Unemployment Rate(%) |
9.9 2006Q2 |
- |
6.0 |
6.4 |
6.8 |
7.3 |
6,6 |
8,5 |
11,4 |
10,3 |
10.0 |
- |
- |
| Industrial Output (%D
y-o-y
) |
11.4 Jun |
- |
7.12 |
10.4 |
2.01 |
-5.02 |
-6.05 |
-7.54 |
9.1 |
9.1 |
9.8 |
5.3 |
- |
| PSBR/GNP (%) |
4.3 (2004) |
- |
8.6 |
7.7 |
9.4 |
15.5 |
11.8 |
16.4 |
12.7 |
8.7 |
4.3 |
- |
- |
| CPI y-o-y |
11.69 Jul |
- |
79.8 |
99.1 |
69.7 |
68.8 |
39.0 |
68.5 |
29.8 |
18.4 |
9.32 |
7.72 |
- |
|
PPI y-o-y (WPI pre-2005) |
14.34 Jul |
- |
84.9 |
91.0 |
54.3 |
62.9 |
32.7 |
88.6 |
30.8 |
13.9 |
13.84 |
2.66 |
- |
|
AveO/N Interbank Interest Rate% |
13.5 H1 |
- |
76.5 |
70.4 |
74.5 |
73.2 |
54.1 |
93.2 |
49.5 |
36.0 |
21.8 |
14.8 |
- |
| %Dy-o-y
end-period TL/US$ |
8.68 Aug 15 |
- |
76.1 |
90.5 |
52.7 |
72.7 |
24.4 |
114.3 |
13.3 |
15.9 |
-3.85 |
0.41 |
- |
| TL/US$ (average) |
1.3698 H1 |
- |
81,836 |
152,071 |
261,05 |
420,126 |
623,704 |
1,225,412 |
1,505,840 |
1,493,068 |
1,422,341 |
1.34079 |
- |
| TL/US$ (bid end-period) |
1.4657 Aug 15 |
8.68 |
107,505 |
204,750 |
312,720 |
540,098 |
671,765 |
1,446,638 |
1,639,745 |
1,393,278 |
1,336,300 |
1.3418 |
- |
| TL/Є
(bid end-period) |
1.866 Aug 15 |
11.7 |
- |
- |
- |
542.096 |
618.561 |
1,281,287 |
1,718,945 |
1,757,480 |
1,826,800 |
1.5875 |
- |
| Exports,
(US$ bn) |
39.5 H1 |
11.5 |
32.4 |
32.6 |
31.2 |
29,3 |
31,7 |
35.3 |
39.95 |
46.9 |
63.0 |
73.1 |
- |
| Imports, (US$ bn) |
65.2 H1 |
18.3 |
43.0 |
48.60 |
45.4 |
39.8 |
54.0 |
39.7 |
48.5 |
68.7 |
97.3 |
116.1 |
- |
| Trade Balance (US$ bn) |
-25.7 H1 |
30.6 |
-10.6 |
-15.4 |
-14.2 |
-10.4 |
-22.4 |
-4.5 |
-8.6 |
-21.9 |
-34.3 |
-42.9 |
- |
| Current Acct Bal (US$bn) |
-18.66
H1 |
- |
-2.44 |
-2.64 |
1.98 |
-1.36 |
-9.82 |
3.40 |
-1.79 |
-6.8 |
-15.5 |
-22.9 |
- |
|
CA % of GNP |
- |
- |
-1.33 |
-1.37 |
0.96 |
-0.73 |
- 4.88 |
2.29 |
-0.99 |
-2.85 |
-5.14 |
-6.35 |
- |
| FX Reserves (US$ bn) |
57.4 Aug 4 |
- |
16.3 |
18.4 |
19.7 |
23.2 |
22.2 |
18.8 |
26.7 |
33.6 |
36.0 |
50.5 |
- |
| External Debt (US$ bn) |
185.0 (2006Q1) |
- |
79.2 |
84.3 |
96.4 |
103.0 |
118.6 |
113.7 |
130.2 |
145.4 |
161.7 |
170.1 |
- |
| % of GNP |
- |
- |
43.1 |
42.8 |
45.5 |
53.9 |
58.9 |
78.9 |
71.3 |
60.8 |
53.6 |
47.1 |
- |
| Debt Service/Exports |
46.8 (2006Q1) |
- |
49.16 |
47.29 |
61.22 |
68.89 |
78.98 |
78.6 |
80.01 |
58.77 |
48.4 |
49.7 |
- |
-
Note that as a result of currency reform at the start of
2005, six zeros were erased from Lira prices. Thus, at end-2004 US$1 = TL
1,342,100 would now read US$1 = YTL 1.3421 (YTL- Yeni Turk Lirasi; New Turkish
Lira).
-
Official forecasts/targets are often revised mid-year. The
above table provides the initial projections. Please refer to the link on the
left margin for latest updates, should it be available.
-
Official forecasts in Turkey are provided by the Central Bank, Ministry of
Finance, State
Institute of Statistics, State Planning Organization, and Treasury. CBRT produces regular tendency surveys. Forecasts of the various
agencies are frequently, but not always, consistent with projections from other
agencies. Differences may also arise because some agencies update releases more
often. Domestic official projections should also match IMF forecasts because Turkey has periodically been implementing IMF
schemes. Please bear in mind that
official projections are, in a sense, targets.
-
Fcast Turkey section is on hold; refer
instead to detailed international agency projections or state targets by
following the links on the left border of this page.
|
